Improving Market Index Spans 32 States, District Of Columbia

80 U.S. metropolitan markets are showing "measurable and sustained growth" this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders' Improving Market Index.

It's good news for the economy and good news for housing. 

The NAHB's Improving Market Index is meant to identify U.S. markets in expansion. It's a composite of the three distinct data sets which, as a group, present a more holistic view of a given city's growth :

1. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the IMI tracks employment figures
2. From Freddie Mac, the IMI tracks home price data
3. From the Census Bureau, the IMI tracks single-family building permits

The home builder trade group compiles this data and, in order for a given metropolitan area to earn the label "improving", the area must meet two specific growth conditions.

First, in a given city, each of the above data sets must show growth or expansion in the current calendar month. If one of the three do not show growth, the city cannot qualify.

Second, in a given city, at least six months must have passed since the most recent trough of all of the above metrics.  It's this second clause that can make the Improving Market Index meaningful.

By focusing on long-term growth trends within a city, the IMI ignores "blips" and seasonal irregularities. 

The August IMI shows 80 improving markets nationwide, a 4-city decrease from July 2012. 5 new cities were added to the index including Miami, Florida; Terre Haute, Indiana; and Lubbock, Texas. Nine cities fell off the list.

Overall, 32 states are represented in the IMI, and the District of Columbia, too.

For today's Bethesda home buyers, the IMI doesn't provide much actionable information. It doesn't show home prices, for example, nor the current demand for homes. What it shows is the strength of local economies, though, and in many cases, as the economy heats up, so do home prices.

The complete Improving Markets Index is available for download at the NAHB website.

Mortgage Standards Stop Tightening; Lending Soon To Loosen?

As another signal of an improving U.S. economy, the nation's biggest banks have started to loosen mortgage lending guidelines.

As reported by the Federal Reserve, last quarter, no "big banks" reported stricter mortgage standards as compared to the quarter prior and "modest fractions" of banks reported easier mortgage standards. 

The data comes from the Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey, a questionnaire sent to 64 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches of foreign banks. The survey is meant to gauge, among other things, direct demand for consumer loans and banks' willingness to meet this demand.

Not surprisingly, as mortgage rates fell to all-time lows last quarter, nearly all responding banks reported an increase in demand for prime residential mortgages where "prime residential mortgage" is defined as a mortgage for an applicant whose credit scores are high; whose payment history is unblemished; and, whose debt-to-income ratios are low.

Consumers were eager to buy homes and/or refinance them last quarter and 6% of the nation's big banks said their credit standards "eased somewhat" during that time frame. The remaining 94% of big banks said standards were left unchanged.

The ease of getting approved for a home loan, however, is relative.

As compared to 5 years ago, Bethesda home buyers and rate shoppers face a distinctly more challenging mortgage environment. Not only are today's minimum FICO score requirements higher by up to 100 points, depending on the loan product, applicants face new income scrutiny and must also demonstrate a more clear capacity to make repayments.

Tougher lending standards are among the reasons why the national home ownership rate is at its lowest point since 1997. It is harder to get mortgage-approved today as compared to late-last decade.

For those who apply and succeed, the reward is access to the lowest mortgage rates in a lifetime. Mortgage rates throughout VA continue to push home affordability to all-time highs.

If you've been shopping for a home, or planning to refinance, with mortgage rates low, it's a good time to commit. 

Closing At The End Of August? Plan Ahead For Labor Day Weekend.

Planning to make a late-August purchase closing? Keep an eye on your calendar. The last Friday of this month coincides with Labor Day Weekend, which may make for a complicated, end-of-month closing.

If you're planning to close on, or around, August 31, 2012, plan ahead. Leaving anything to the proverbial last minute could delay your closing by hours in a best-case scenario, and by days in a worst-case.

This is because Labor Day is among the most popular vacation times of the year in the real estate, title and mortgage industries and, as Labor Day approaches, it's increasingly hard to resolve "issues" related to settlement -- not all parties are readily available for resolution.

A small closing issue, therefore, can spiral into a major one when you can't reach your attorney; or, when the title company is short-staffed, for example. 

For Washington, DC home buyers currently under contract, and for homeowners with a refinance in-process, the best defense at a time like this is a good offense. Get proactive with the mortgage process.

These steps can help your end-of-month closing go more smoothly this month :

1. Prepay your first year of homeowners insurance, effective your closing date. Provide proof of payment to your lender.
2. Document and deposit all gifts and retirement withdrawals to be used in conjunction with your closing as early in the process as possible.
3. If applicable, get Power of Attorney forms signed by all parties, and lender-approved in advance. Don't leave this for the last week.
4. When your lender makes requests for paperwork, fulfill the requests within 24 hours, when possible.

In addition, if you're a home buyer, consider scheduling your home walk-through for as early as can be reasonable. That way, if there's an issue to resolve, there's ample time to address it among all parties.

Furthermore, if you have planned vacation time between today and your closing date, make it known to all parties, and make sure to be reachable in the event of emergency by phone and/or email.

Real estate brokerages, title companies and mortgage lenders are notoriously short-staffed as Labor Day approached. Routine tasks take longer than usual. Plan ahead for August 31, therefore. It would be foolish not to.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 6, 2012

Mortgage bonds worsened last week in a news- and event-heavy week. A series of non-action from the world's central banks -- including the Federal Reserve -- plus a better-than-expected jobs report pushed mortgage rates to their highest levels in more than a month.

Conforming mortgage rates rose in Rockville and nationwide last week.

The week wasn't without drama, however. Mortgage rates carved out a wide range.

When the week opened, mortgage markets were in a rally mode. The European Central Bank had previously said that it would do whatever was needed to preserve the European Union. However, details failed to emerge on that plan, leading to a "risk off" scenario in which investors moved money into the relative safety of bonds, a class which includes mortgage-backed securities.

Mortgage rates dropped Monday and Tuesday.

Then, Wednesday, beginning at 2:15 PM ET, mortgage rates spiked. The timing coincides with the end of the Federal Open Market Committee's scheduled 2-day meeting and its statement to the markets. In it, the Fed said it will leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged in its target range of 0.000-0.250%, and that it will not add new stimulus to the markets or the economy.

Wall Street had expected the Federal Reserve to launch new support for bond markets and, when the Fed chose against it, bond markets sold off, sending mortgage rates higher.

Thursday, mortgage rates, once again, slipped. This occurred after the European Central Bank emerged from a meeting with no clear plan to "save the Euro". Markets believe the ECB will take some action, but because that action won't happen right away, investors once more poured into the relative safety of mortgage bonds.

Lastly, on Friday, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 163,000 net new jobs added in July, far exceeding analyst expectations of 100,000 net new jobs. The surprise result sent stock markets soaring and bond markets sinking. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose all day, and is now at its highest level in close to 6 weeks.

Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 3.55% last week. It's higher than that now.

This week, there isn't much economic data on which for markets to move so expect to see rhetoric and momentum take center stage. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke makes two public appearances and Eurozone leaders will continue to be in the news.

If you're floating a mortgage rate right now, a prudent move may be to lock it.

Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates Rises To 3.55%

Mortgage rates couldn't fall forever, it seems.

This week, for the first time since mid-June, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate climbed on a week-over-week basis, moving 6 basis points to 3.55%, on average, nationwide.

According to Freddie Mac, 3.55 percent is the highest average rate at which the benchmark product has been offered in close to 4 weeks.

The Freddie Mac published mortgage rate is available for prime borrowers willing to pay a full set of closing costs plus an accompanying 0.7 discount points.

Discount points are a one-time, upfront mortgage loan fee to be paid at closing where 1 discount point is equal to one percent of your loan size. In this way, a Bethesda home buyer who pays one discount point at closing will be responsible for an additional $1,000 in closing costs per $100,000 borrowed.

However, although Freddie Mac says that the average mortgage rate is 3.55%, not everyone who applies for a conforming mortgage will get access to that rate. This is because Freddie Mac's published rates are the ones offered to "prime" borrowers, the definition of which often includes :

• Top-rated credit scores, typically 740 or higher
• Verifiable income using two year's of tax returns 
• Home equity of at least 25%

Borrowers not meeting the above criteria should expect slightly higher mortgage rates and/or discount points. In some cases, such as when an applicant's credit score is below 680, mortgage rates may be higher by as much as 0.500%.

Although mortgage rates are up this week, though, the impact on home affordability is muted. Mortgage payments rose just $3 per month per $100,000 borrowed this week as compared to last week. 3.55% remains the third-lowest Freddie Mac rate of all-time.

Mortgage rates remain unpredictable and there's no guarantee for low rates to last forever -- much less through August. If today's mortgage rates meet your needs, therefore, consider locking something in.

Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (August 1 , 2012)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Wednesday. The vote was nearly unanimous.

Only one FOMC member, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker, dissented in the 9-1 vote.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008. 

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the U.S. economy has "decelerated somewhat" since January. Beyond the next few quarters, though, the Fed expects growth to "remain moderate" and then gradually pick up.

There was no mention of strain in global financial markets and its threat to the U.S. economy, as the Fed had made in its last two post-meeting press releases.

The Fed's statement also included the following observations about the economy :

1. Household spending is "rising at a somewhat slower pace"
2. Inflation has declined, mostly on lower oil and gas prices
3. Unemployment rates remain "elevated"

Furthermore, the Fed addressed the housing market, stating that, despite signs of improvement, the sector overall remains "depressed".

The biggest news to come out of the FOMC meeting, though, was that there was no news.

First, the Federal Reserve is leaving its "Operation Twist" program in place. Operation Twist sells shorter-term securities off the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, using the proceeds to purchase longer-term securities. This move puts "downward pressure on longer-term interest rates" and makes "broader financial conditions more accommodative."

Second, the Fed re-iterated its pledged to keep the Fed Funds Rate at "exceptionally low" levels at least through late-2014.

And, third, to Wall Street's surprise, there was no announcement of a third round of quantitative easing, a market stimulus plan by which the Federal Reserve buys U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds on the open market. QE3 would have likely led mortgage rates lower.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a two-day event slated for September 12-13, 2012.

Mortgage markets are rising post-FOMC.

Case-Shiller Index Shows Home Values Rising Nationwide

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 2.2% nationwide, with all 20 tracked markets making month-to-month improvement. On an annual basis, 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets improved.

Despite the positive report, however, our enthusiasm for the May Case-Shiller Index should be tempered. This is because the index's methodology is less-than-ideal for today's Washington, DC home buyer.

There are three main reasons why :

1. The Case-Shiller Index tracks values for single-family homes only
2. The Case-Shiller Index is distorted by distressed, discounted home sales 
3. The Case-Shiller Index publishes on a 2-month lag

Perhaps even more important, though, is that the Case-Shiller Index ignores a basic tenet of the housing market -- all real estate is local. It's not possible for 20 cities to represent the U.S. housing market as a whole. Even more egregious is that the 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller Index don't represent the country's twenty most populated cities.

The Case-Shiller Index specifically excludes home sale data from Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose -- four of the nation's 10 most populated cities. Yet, the index does include data from cities such as Minneapolis, Minnesota and Tampa, Florida.

These two cities rank #48 and #55, respectively.

Furthermore, in its 20 tracked cities, the Case-Shiller Index still manages to fail as a reliable housing market barometer. This is because home values vary by zip code, by neighborhood, and by street, even. All 20 Case-Shiller Index cities showed gains in May, but there remains areas within each metropolitan area in which values outpaced the Case-Shiller Index findings, and areas in which values fell short.

The Case-Shiller Index provides broad, generalized housing market data and that works for an economist. For an active home buyer or seller, though, making smart real estate decisions requires having timely, relevant real estate data at-hand when it's needed. 

For data like that, talk with a real estate agent.