What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - May 19, 2014

Last week's economic news was relatively flat, but highlights include the NAHB Housing Market Index for May, which posted its lowest reading since May 2013. Although analysts expected a May reading of 48, the May 2014 index reading was 45 as compared to April's reading of 46.

The NAHB reported that rising home prices and unpredictable job markets were factors in builders' loss of confidence. Although the economy is growing stronger, many would-be homebuyers remain skeptical of economic conditions and remain on the sidelines.

NAHB: Stronger Builder Confidence Expected in Coming Months

Builder confidence in market conditions for single family homes within the next six months were higher at 57, a one-point improvement over April's reading. Builder confidence in buyer foot traffic increased by two points to 33; this was likely a result of warmer weather. David Crowe, chief economist of the NAHB, said that builder confidence is expected to improve as consumers grow more secure about their employment.

Economy: Retail Sales Slow

Retail sales for April posted a gain of 0.10 percent over the March reading of an upwardly revised 1.50 percent and expectations of 0.40 percent for April. The Commerce Department reported that without the automotive sector, April's retail sales were unchanged. The difference between March and April retail sales readings was attributed to a burst of spending after severe winter weather and the Easter holiday.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates across the board, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage one basis point lower at 4.20 percent. The average rate for a 15-year mortgage was three basis points lower at 3.29 percent. Discount points for 30 and 15-year mortgages were unchanged at 0.60 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage fell by four basis points to 3.01 percent. Discount points dropped from 0.50 percent to 0.40 percent. 

New Jobless claims fell from the prior week's reading of 321,000 to 297,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to be unchanged from the prior week's reading.

Manufacturing Sector Shows Strength

The Empire State Index, which measures manufacturing growth in New York rose to 19.0 in May against an expected reading of 5.0 and April's reading of 1.3. The Philly Fed Index, another indicator of manufacturing, surpassed its expected reading of 14.3 and came in at 15.4, but May's reading was lower than April's 16.6.

This Week

This week's scheduled economic news includes the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, New Jobless Claims, Freddie Mac's report on mortgage rates, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales and Leading Indicators.